Stop the madness! I’ve had multiple conversations recently with multiple friends – some who have rentals – asking if the market is going to crash. NO – it’s stabalizing and I wanted to write an article that dives into why. As of early 2025, both the Denver and Arvada housing markets are exhibiting signs of stabilization, transitioning from the rapid pace of previous years to a more balanced state. Here’s an overview of the key metrics:
Denver Metro Housing Market Overview
- Median Home Price: In July 2024, the median closed price for homes in the Denver Metro area was $600,000, reflecting a 2% increase from the same time the previous year.
- Inventory Levels: Active listings reached 10,541 in July 2024, marking a 60% increase compared to July 2023 and the highest inventory levels seen in a decade.
- Days on Market: Homes spent a median of 16 days on the market before going under contract in July 2024, which is a week longer than the same period the previous year.
- Condo Market: The condo segment experienced a 6.3% decrease in average prices from August 2023 to August 2024. Active listings for condos surged by 35%, and the average days on market increased by 64% to 41 days.
Arvada Housing Market Overview
- Median Home Price: As of January 2025, the median sale price in Arvada was $625,000, up 3.7% year-over-year. Redfin
- Days on Market: Homes in Arvada sold after a median of 39 days on the market, slightly longer than the previous year.
- Market Activity: In January 2025, there were 107 homes sold in Arvada, a 23% increase from the same month the previous year. Redfin
Why this isn’t a Crash!
Compared to a few years back, it may seem the market is ‘crashing’ due to prices on certain homes coming down, houses sitting a bit longer on the market and more concessions being offered. It’s NOT the same! Between 2021 and 2023, Denver experienced an incredibly competitive housing market driven by:
- Historically Low Interest Rates
Mortgage rates hovered near 2–3%, making borrowing incredibly affordable and increasing buyer demand. - Pandemic-Driven Migration
Denver attracted remote workers looking for lifestyle-friendly cities. People moved from more expensive markets like California and Seattle, often with cash offers. - Inventory Shortages
Inventory hit record lows. In some months, there were fewer than 3,000 active listings across the entire Denver metro — well below a balanced market threshold (~13,000–15,000). - Aggressive Bidding Wars
Homes were routinely selling $50k–$100k+ over asking, with multiple offers in the first weekend. Sellers set the terms, waived inspections, and chose the cleanest, fastest offer.
What Market Stabilization Means in 2024–2025 (Not a Crash):
Now, the market is shifting — but not collapsing:
- Inventory Is Increasing, Not Flooding
Inventory is up 60% year over year, but it’s still well below 2008 crash levels. It’s giving buyers breathing room, not flooding the market. - Days on Market Are Normalizing
Instead of 3–5 days, homes now sit for 2–6 weeks, which is historically average for a balanced market. - Price Growth Is Flattening, Not Plummeting
Median prices have stabilized or seen very modest year-over-year appreciation — nothing like the dramatic drops seen during the Great Recession. - Interest Rates Are Higher, But Buyers Are Still Active
While 6–7% rates have cooled demand, motivated and financially strong buyers are still purchasing — especially with sellers offering rate buydowns or concessions.
Market Balance Assessment
The Denver Metro and Arvada housing markets are showing signs of balancing due to several factors:REcolorado
- Increased Inventory: Both markets have seen a significant rise in active listings, providing buyers with more options and reducing competition.
- Extended Days on Market: Homes are staying on the market longer, indicating a shift from a seller’s market to a more neutral stance.
- Stable Prices: While prices have increased modestly, the rate of growth has slowed, suggesting a move towards price stabilization.
These trends suggest that the market is transitioning from the highly competitive conditions of the past few years to a more balanced environment, offering opportunities for both buyers and sellers.
If you have specific questions about single-family homes or condos in either market, feel free to ask for more detailed information.